Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall - Institut Pasteur
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail (Preprint/Prepublication) Année : 2023

Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall

Résumé

The development of effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) for climate-driven zoonotic diseases has been hindered by a lack of predictors with adequate lead time for effective interventions. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled phenomena present predictability beyond the atmospheric deterministic limits and therefore are potentially useful climate drivers to be integrated in mathematical models. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been used to forecast disease dynamics in equatorial and tropical regions, there is a lack of similar applications for temperate areas, likely because of the perceived unpredictability of atmospheric systems such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study challenges this notion by establishing a connection between the NAO and its oceanic counterpart, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), revealing common low-frequency components that strongly modulate Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Northern Africa. We demonstrate not only short-term couplings, such as the known NAO’s impact on seasonal rainfall, which subsequently affects CL incidence, but we also uncover a significant lagged effect of approximately three years on rainfall and four years on CL incidence. Our findings reveal a unified, multiscale mechanism that influences CL epidemiology across different time scales, underscoring the predictive skill for short and long term time frames, which should be integrated in CL forecasting models.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
2023.12.14.23299949v3.full.pdf (766.72 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Licence

Dates et versions

pasteur-04559670 , version 1 (25-04-2024)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Adrià San-José, Karim Aoun, Meryem Lemrani, Mhaidi Idis, Aida Bouratbine, et al.. Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall. 2024. ⟨pasteur-04559670⟩
41 Consultations
36 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More