Estimates of effectiveness and impact of nirsevimab on hospitalisations for RSV bronchiolitis in metropolitan France, 2023-2024 : a modelling study
Résumé
Background
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a major cause of hospitalisations and deaths among
infants worldwide. France was one of the first countries to administer nirsevimab, a
single-dose long acting monoclonal antibody treatment to prevent lower respiratory tract
infection caused by RSV. Effectiveness in real-world settings and impact in terms of
hospitalisations averted are not well known.
Methods
We developed an age-structured deterministic model characterising RSV transmission as
well as plausible scenarios for the administration of nirsevimab doses based on delivery data
to maternity wards and pharmacies. We estimated nirsevimab effectiveness and the number
of hospitalisations for RSV bronchiolitis following emergency room visits (HBER-RSV)
averted, by calibrating the model to hospital and virological surveillance data from mid-2017
to February 4, 2024, alongside serological data.
Findings
We estimated that nirsevimab administration prevented 5,800 (95% CI: 3,700-7,800)
HBER-RSV, including 4,200 (2,900-5,600) among those aged 0-2 months, between
September 15, 2023 and February 4, 2024. This corresponds to a 23% (16%-30%) reduction
in the total number of HBER-RSV (35%, 25%-44%, among 0-2 months) compared to the
scenario without administration. In our baseline scenario with 215,000 doses administered
by January 31, 2024, the effectiveness of nirsevimab against HBER-RSV was estimated at
73% (61%-84%), which corresponds to 1 HBER-RSV case prevented for every 39 (26-54)
doses administered. The estimated number of HBER-RSV averted was insensitive to the
assumed administration scenario; but effectiveness varied slightly.
Interpretation
With 1 HBER-RSV averted for about every 40 children treated, our study highlights the
relevance of nirsevimab administration to reduce RSV hospitalisations
Domaines
Maladies infectieuses
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Modelling the impact of nirsevimab administration_Institut Pasteur_2024.03.08.pdf (3.36 Mo)
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