Neutralizing antibody levels as a correlate of protection against SARS‐CoV‐2 infection: a modeling analysis - Institut Pasteur
Article Dans Une Revue (Article De Synthèse) Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics Année : 2024

Neutralizing antibody levels as a correlate of protection against SARS‐CoV‐2 infection: a modeling analysis

Isabelle Staropoli

Résumé

While anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 antibody kinetics have been described in large populations of vaccinated individuals, we still poorly understand how they evolve during a natural infection and how this impacts viral clearance. For that purpose, we analyzed the kinetics of both viral load and neutralizing antibody levels in a prospective cohort of individuals during acute infection with alpha variant. Using a mathematical model, we show that the progressive increase in neutralizing antibodies leads to a shortening of the half‐life of both infected cells and infectious viral particles. We estimated that the neutralizing activity reached 90% of its maximal level within 11 days after symptom onset and could reduce the half‐life of both infected cells and circulating virus by a 6‐fold factor, thus playing a key role to achieve rapid viral clearance. Using this model, we conducted a simulation study to predict in a more general context the protection conferred by pre‐existing neutralization titers, due to either vaccination or prior infection. We predicted that a neutralizing activity, as measured by ED 50 >10 3 , could reduce by 46% the risk of having viral load detectable by standard PCR assays and by 98% the risk of having viral load above the threshold of infectiousness. Our model shows that neutralizing activity could be used to define correlates of protection against infection and transmission.
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pasteur-04245549 , version 1 (17-10-2023)

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Guillaume Lingas, Delphine Planas, Hélène Péré, Françoise Porrot, Florence Guivel-Benhassine, et al.. Neutralizing antibody levels as a correlate of protection against SARS‐CoV‐2 infection: a modeling analysis. Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics, 2024, 115 (1), pp.86-94. ⟨10.1002/cpt.3069⟩. ⟨pasteur-04245549⟩
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