Using Serology to Anticipate Measles Post-honeymoon Period Outbreaks - Institut Pasteur Access content directly
Journal Articles Trends in Microbiology Year : 2020

Using Serology to Anticipate Measles Post-honeymoon Period Outbreaks

Abstract

Measles vaccination is a public health 'best buy', with the highest cost of illness averted of any vaccine-preventable disease (Ozawa et al., Bull. WHO 2017;95:629). In recent decades, substantial reductions have been made in the number of measles cases, with an estimated 20 million deaths averted from 2000 to 2017 (Dabbagh et al., MMWR 2018;67:1323). Yet, an important feature of epidemic dynamics is that large outbreaks can occur following years of apparently successful control (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Such 'post-honeymoon period' outbreaks are a result of the nonlinear dynamics of epidemics (Mclean et al., Epidemiol. Infect. 1988;100:419-442). Anticipating post-honeymoon outbreaks could lead to substantial gains in public health, helping to guide the timing, age-range, and location of catch-up vaccination campaigns (Grais et al., J. Roy. Soc. Interface 2008003B6:67-74). Theoretical conditions for such outbreaks are well understood for measles, yet the information required to make these calculations policy-relevant is largely lacking. We propose that a major extension of serological studies to directly characterize measles susceptibility is a high priority.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
1-s2.0-S0966842X20301025-main.pdf (836.83 Ko) Télécharger le fichier

Dates and versions

pasteur-03442505 , version 1 (23-11-2021)

Licence

Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives

Identifiers

Cite

C.J.E. Metcalf, A. Wesolowski, A.K. Winter, J. Lessler, Simon Cauchemez, et al.. Using Serology to Anticipate Measles Post-honeymoon Period Outbreaks. Trends in Microbiology, 2020, 28 (8), pp.597-600. ⟨10.1016/j.tim.2020.04.009⟩. ⟨pasteur-03442505⟩
18 View
27 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More